Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4386
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4386 · LGB → SEA
departs 5:11 PM PT · arrives 7:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 59%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 36%
Thu 11/19 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.