Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 438 · AUS → STL
departs 4:54 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 28%
Tue 11/17 21%
Wed 11/18 23%
Thu 11/19 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.26 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.