Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4639
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4639 · HOU → TPA
departs 8:23 PM CT · arrives 11:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 30%
Tue 11/17 25%
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.45 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.