Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4657
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4657 · OKC → HOU
departs 6:01 PM CT · arrives 7:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sat 11/14 15%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 18%
Thu 11/19 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 1.0 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↓
OKC usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip 0.81 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.97 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.