Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4692
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4692 · LGA → HOU
departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 8:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 66%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 55%
Tue 11/17 45%
Wed 11/18 44%
Thu 11/19 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±6 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.