Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4722
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4722 · BWI → BUF
departs 6:13 PM ET · arrives 7:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 36%
Thu 11/19 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,067 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.