Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4745
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4745 · MCO → HOU
departs 6:27 PM ET · arrives 8:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 40%
Tue 11/17 25%
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.68 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.