Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4794 · MSY → MCO
departs 5:06 PM CT · arrives 7:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 36%
Tue 11/17 26%
Wed 11/18 26%
Thu 11/19 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.