Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 4847 · LAS → COS
departs 4:18 PM PT · arrives 7:14 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 37%
Thu 11/19 49%
Fri 11/20 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
COS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.