Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4863 · DAL → SAV
departs 5:11 PM CT · arrives 8:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 30%
Thu 11/19 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at SAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAV?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAV
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.45 in
SAV (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.