Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4914
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 4914 · SAN → RNO
departs 5:30 PM PT · arrives 7:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17 27%
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.