Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4935
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 4935 · HOU → JAX
departs 8:37 PM CT · arrives 11:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 30%
Thu 11/19 36%
Fri 11/20 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.78 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.