Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 506 · PHX → ELP
departs 2:51 PM MT · arrives 4:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 38%
Thu 11/19 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.