Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 512 · LAX → SFO
departs 2:01 PM PT · arrives 3:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 89%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 54%
Tue 11/17 38%
Wed 11/18 30%
Thu 11/19 60%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
100%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
100%
Leave 15+ late
78%
Arrive 1h+ late
75%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
100%
Yes 100%
No <1%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
47%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.