Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 580 · DEN → SAT
departs 7:14 PM MT · arrives 10:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 36%
Tue 11/17 40%
Wed 11/18 33%
Thu 11/19 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 967 ft forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.