Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 642
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 642 · BUR → SFO
departs 8:25 AM PT · arrives 9:50 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 59%
Sat 11/14 35%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 40%
Tue 11/17 31%
Wed 11/18 38%
Thu 11/19 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
74%
chance · ±9 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
74%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
74%
Yes 74%
No 26%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
34%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,467 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.