Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 713
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 713 · SAN → SEA
departs 6:00 PM PT · arrives 8:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 95%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 51%
Tue 11/17 46%
Wed 11/18 50%
Thu 11/19 65%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.