Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 794 · CVG → BWI
departs 5:31 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 19%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from CVG are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.