Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 804 · SMF → ONT
departs 3:26 PM PT · arrives 5:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 29%
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 27%
Thu 11/19 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
3pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,567 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.37 in
ONT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.