Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 830 · BHM → MCO
departs 4:41 PM CT · arrives 7:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 11/14 34%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 36%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.