Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Today
WN 8509 · LAX → BUR
departs 9:14 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Arrivals into BUR at that hour are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.