Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 940
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 940 · BUR → SMF
departs 6:06 PM PT · arrives 7:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 26%
Tue 11/17 26%
Wed 11/18 21%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,567 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.