Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1446 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

AA 1446 · DFW → TUL

departs 9:31 PM CT · arrives 10:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1446 · DFW → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?