Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1600 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 1600 · PHL → CMH

departs 9:25 PM ET · arrives 11:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1600 · PHL → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?