Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2151 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 2151 · ORD → BNA

departs 8:54 PM CT · arrives 10:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2151 · ORD → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?