Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2244 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 2244 · DFW → BNA

departs 3:20 PM CT · arrives 5:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

BNA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2244 · DFW → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?