Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 2401 · DFW → BUF

departs 6:59 PM CT · arrives 11:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

BUF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2401 · DFW → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?