Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2839 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 2839 · DFW → FAT

departs 12:21 PM CT · arrives 1:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

FAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2839 · DFW → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?