Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3010 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 3010 · PHL → DFW

departs 5:31 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3010 · PHL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?