Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3230 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 3230 · PHX → PDX

departs 3:59 PM MT · arrives 5:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3230 · PHX → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?