Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3262 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

AA 3262 · DFW → JAX

departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 6:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling5,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3262 · DFW → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?