Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 445 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 445 · DFW → SAT

departs 7:57 PM CT · arrives 9:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 445 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?