Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 458 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 458 · DFW → MEM

departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 9:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 458 · DFW → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?