Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 517 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 517 · ORD → SFO

departs 8:04 AM CT · arrives 10:38 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 517 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?