Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 867 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 867 · JFK → STT

departs 9:28 AM ET · arrives 2:27 PM AST

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at STT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STT?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at STT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 867 · JFK → STT

Odds over time

How late will it get to STT?