Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1131 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AS 1131 · ITO → HNL

departs 8:38 PM HT · arrives 9:44 PM HT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late

↓ ITO usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ITO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1131 · ITO → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?