Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1334 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AS 1334 · SEA → LAS

departs 7:00 PM PT · arrives 9:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1334 · SEA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?