Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2696 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AS 2696 · SBD → PDX

departs 9:11 PM PT · arrives 11:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ 9pm departures from SBD are usually not late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.09 in

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2696 · SBD → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?