Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 70 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AS 70 · ANC → JNU

departs 7:47 PM AKT · arrives 9:28 PM AKST

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JNU?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ JNU usually runs smoothly

↓ 7pm departures from ANC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

JNU (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 70 · ANC → JNU

Odds over time

How late will it get to JNU?