Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1403
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
DL 1403 · ATL → STL
departs 11:10 PM ET · arrives 11:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 78%
Sun 11/15 18%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 16%
Wed 11/18 14%
Thu 11/19 23%
Fri 11/20 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
11pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.