Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1876
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
DL 1876 · SJD → LAX
departs 3:46 PM MST · arrives 5:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 76%
Sun 11/15 24%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 15%
Thu 11/19 20%
Fri 11/20 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD
Weather at each end
SJD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.