Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
DL 2457 · LAX → PDX
departs 8:00 PM PT · arrives 10:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 30%
Wed 11/18 22%
Thu 11/19 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
PDX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.