Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2636 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

DL 2636 · RIC → DTW

departs 5:02 PM ET · arrives 6:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ RIC is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2636 · RIC → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?