Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 622 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

DL 622 · LAX → AUS

departs 4:19 PM PT · arrives 9:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 622 · LAX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?