Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3403
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
MQ 3403 · GSP → ORD
departs 6:38 PM ET · arrives 7:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 35%
Wed 11/18 49%
Thu 11/19 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from GSP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.