Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
MQ 3415 · ORD → MLI
departs 3:22 PM CT · arrives 4:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sun 11/15 13%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 37%
Thu 11/19 27%
Fri 11/20 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MLI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MLI?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MLI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.