Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
MQ 3466 · ORD → CWA
departs 3:02 PM CT · arrives 4:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 11/15 12%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 21%
Wed 11/18 34%
Thu 11/19 26%
Fri 11/20 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CWA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at CWA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CWA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CWA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.