Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
MQ 3473 · SGF → DFW
departs 4:35 PM CT · arrives 6:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 11/15 58%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 19%
Wed 11/18 24%
Thu 11/19 29%
Fri 11/20 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.