Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4034
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
MQ 4034 · DFW → MLI
departs 9:22 PM CT · arrives 11:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 9%
Wed 11/18 20%
Thu 11/19 19%
Sat 11/21 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MLI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MLI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at DFW that day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MLI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.