Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4082
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
MQ 4082 · SGF → DFW
departs 6:42 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 82%
Sun 11/15 50%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 22%
Wed 11/18 22%
Thu 11/19 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.